Axis 1 - Global change drivers: exposure, impacts and feedbacks

This first axis focuses on understanding, quantifying and predicting the exposure of terrestrial social-ecological systems to these global change drivers and their impacts on organisms, ecosystems and society. The BASC consortium has considerable expertise in studying all of these principal drivers, but often research has treated exposure to global change drivers and impacts in a fragmentary fashion. The primary strategic goal in this axis is to move towards a more integrated and interdisciplinary approach, particularly at regional spatial scales. One major output will be simple and reliable indicators of exposure and impacts to facilitate decision-making and communication with managers and policy makers.

Several research lines of investigation will be explored:

• Towards an integrated view of climate, air pollution, land use and their impacts on social-ecological systems at regional scales: develop regional scale models of the dynamic interactions between SES, regional climate and air pollution; construct scenarios of land use and management change; couple projections of global climate change with regional models of exposure and impacts (via close collaboration with L-IPSL Labex);
• Linking exposure to soil, air and water pollution with impacts on organisms and ecosystems: develop an integrated approach to understand the fate of micro-pollutants such as heavy metals and pesticides; detect emerging pollutants (e.g. medicinal treatments, nanoparticles); evaluate of the ecotoxicogical effects of complex cocktails of micro-pollutants and determation of the impacts of all pollutants on organisms, ecosystems and ecosystem services;
• Predicting the emergence of invasive species and their impacts on biodiversity and terrestrial ecosystem functions: develop a predictive understanding of the emergence of invasive species in the context of land use, climate change and increasing global trade; explore the possible strategies and consequences of invasive species management and control in the light of new concepts in invasion ecology